Iranians woke up to startling news this weekend as the government of Syria’s long-standing ally, Bashar al-Assad, crumbled unexpectedly.
By Sunday, it was clear that Iran, a steadfast supporter of Assad’s regime, was unprepared for the rapid chain of events that led to his resignation and escape.
Iranian officials quickly issued statements aimed at detaching themselves from Assad, emphasizing that the future of Syria should now be determined solely by its people.
President Masoud Pezeshkian addressed his cabinet on Sunday, reiterating Iran's position. “It is the Syrian people who must decide on the future of their country and its political and governmental system,” he declared, adding that this process should be free from violence or foreign interference.
This announcement followed Iran’s withdrawal of military forces on Friday, signaling a recognition of the inevitable fall of Assad's government. In a rare moment of public introspection, Iranian state media openly discussed the miscalculations in Iran’s Syria strategy. Analysts and officials admitted to underestimating the depth of Assad's unpopularity and the intensity of Syrian public sentiment against his regime.
During a Clubhouse town hall, Hatef Salehi, a government-affiliated analyst, acknowledged, “The most important lesson of Syria for the Islamic Republic is that no government can last without the support of the people.”
Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi provided further insight during a televised interview, revealing that intelligence reports of growing unrest in Idlib Province had been relayed to Assad’s government. Despite this, the speed and scope of the rebellion surprised even seasoned observers.
“What caught us off guard was, one, the inability of Syria’s army to confront the movement and, second, the speed of developments,” Araghchi admitted.
The foreign minister also recounted a recent visit to Syria, where Assad expressed concern over his military’s lack of resolve. However, Araghchi said Assad appeared disconnected from the reality of his precarious position.
In the lead-up to Damascus’ fall, Iran had engaged in diplomatic communications with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the rebel faction spearheading the assault. These talks sought assurances for the safety of Iranian diplomatic missions and Shiite religious sites. Despite these efforts, the Iranian Embassy in Damascus was stormed by rebel supporters following the regime’s collapse.
Videos circulating in Iranian media showed the embassy building ransacked, with furniture destroyed and documents scattered. Protesters tore down posters of prominent Iranian and Hezbollah figures, including Hassan Nasrallah and Qassim Suleimani, both symbols of Iran’s influence in the region.
The Iranian Foreign Ministry confirmed that no staff were present during the attack and that all personnel were safe.
For ordinary Iranians, the dramatic scenes unfolding in Syria triggered a mixture of emotions. Some saw the fall of Assad as a symbolic moment of hope for their own country. Behrouz, a 33-year-old engineer, expressed this sentiment over the phone, saying, “All I can think about is the fall of Iran’s dictatorship regime. Will this sweet moment finally arrive?”
Lili, a university professor, echoed this sentiment, describing her reaction as “a sense of escape, of being let go, of freedom. And then will I, will we, ever see this day?”
Meanwhile, hardline supporters of Iran’s government lamented the loss of a key ally in the region. Meysam Karim Jaffari, a journalist affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards Corps, likened Assad’s downfall to the collapse of a crucial pillar in Iran’s network of militant alliances.
“The Berlin Wall of unity for the axis of resistance has collapsed. That’s it,” Jaffari stated, referring to Iran’s partnerships with groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and other allied factions across the region.
The seismic shift in Syria comes amid other challenges to Iran’s influence. In recent months, several leaders within this network have been killed or neutralized, marking a sharp decline in Iran’s regional clout. Analysts believe the events in Syria underscore a broader trend of setbacks for Iran's ambitions in the Middle East.
“The fall of Assad puts an exclamation point on the fact that decades of Iranian strategy and investment in the Levant have come undone in a matter of weeks,” said Ali Vaez, the Iran director for the International Crisis Group.
As Syrians celebrated the collapse of Assad’s authoritarian regime, Iranians watched closely, pondering the implications for their own country. The echoes of Syria’s rebellion have raised questions about the durability of Iran’s own political system and whether change could one day sweep through its borders as well.
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